EUR fx focus

EUR fx focus Qi’s Long Term model now shows EURUSD fx as +1.7 sigma (2%) above model value. Our model for 3month implied EURUSD fx vol is slightly cheap versus macro- warranted fair value. Positioning is starting to look...


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WTI focus

Focus On WTI Looking at the custom Qi Long Term WTI model we see that: WTI spot price (61.90) is 1.65 sigma above model value (12%). That is to say, even given the strong shift higher in global growth,...


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Macro Regime and Context

Macro Regime and Context for 2018 In the “Regime Watch” & “USD Warning – Drivers on the Move” research pieces (sent on 6th December and 27th November respectively) we noted that the Qi framework was pointing to a fading...


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Macro Regime Watch

A review of major macro drivers across asset classes once again underlines the importance of US inflation expectations – the “reflation theme” remains front and centre. Inflation expectations are key for US rates. The US Dollar against the majors...


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US Dollar Warning: Drivers are on the move

US Dollar weakness into Thanksgiving was underpinned by a move in the major drivers of the USD. Where these drivers move next will be important for the USD in December. There are a number of key events coming up...


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Closer look at the US 2s10s curve

At a time when a lot of market debate has focused on the dynamic between interest rate differentials and spot FX, and whether the regime is shifting, the two custom Qi models below attribute a large part of the...


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Roadmap for Middle East conflict

It is a curious and potentially worrying day. Saudi Arabia has advised its nationals to leave Lebanon (Saudi Press Agency earlier today). This follows the resignation a few days ago of the Lebanese Prime Minister in Riyadh and the...


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Italian Politics and the EURO

Downside risk for EURfx from Italian politics?


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Catalonia Impact

The IBEX stands out as the cheapest index to QI model value on our country index dashboard


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Macro Regime Watch

Fed policy is more important now for FX, US rates and European/EM equities. US equities (S&P and Nasdaq100) are not well explained by macro factors…


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