The Macro Bet Behind Value
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“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” — Benjamin Graham
At the start of the year, Mr. Market has shown his hand. “Run it hot” optimism is high at the start of 2026, whether looking at the yield curve, commodities, or cyclical stocks. The AAII Bulls less Bears survey is at 1-year highs.
Value outperforming Growth is the style synonymous with this thesis.
If you look at every major market outside of the US, Value outperformed Growth in 2025—and since November, it has done so in the US too.
If you believe Rest of World (RoW) will outperform the US, you are paid to take a Value tilt in your portfolio.
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