Mag7’s Achilles’Heel:
Rate Vol & Economic Growth Still Matter

AI leadership has masked macro risks.
The Mag7 thrives on strong growth + ultra-low rate vol — both now at multi-year exposure extremes vs SPY. The Mag7 is not recession / stagflation proof.

Since July, macro momentum for US equities has stalled — AI excitement & earnings upgrades in the top 10 names (now ~40% of S&P 500 MV) have been doing the heavy lifting.

See the chart below.

Quant Insight’s MFERM risk model is -1.4σ below its 3-month average — back in macro complacency territory.

See the chart below.

But Mag7’s outperformance hinges on a Goldilocks backdrop:
- Strong growth
- Ultra-low rate vol (10yr yields just saw their lowest realised vol in 30 years)

Both exposures are now at multi-year extremes vs SPY.

See the chart below.

Author
Qi Analytics Team

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