Two of the big home builders report this week - Lennar tonight, KB Homes after the bell tomorrow. The two stocks have identical profiles on Qi.

Focusing on Lennar, idiosyncratic drivers have been the biggest driver of returns. In fact, even when earnings have come in okay, the stock has sold off. The micro story is, even as current quarter demand has held up, investors are nervous that homebuilders are losing pricing power & margins are under pressure.

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But the stock is not immune to macro's influence. Since Trump's election win, specific factors have been a constant drag.

The Liberation Day shock meant macro was also a headwind toperformance in April but over May / June that drag has abated. The macro backdrop has turned - can it lead a bounce in the stock price?

And the macro picture is clear - Lennar needs financial conditions to stay easy.  LEN's biggest macro exposures today are:

• tight     credit spreads
• low     real & nominal yields
• a     weaker Dollar

Also, given events in the Middle East, it's worth noting that crude oil is the third biggest exposure & sensitivity is increasing. LEN needs the energy market to remain well behaved.

Earnings will be key again. But, from the macro perspective, the ideal scenario is low WTI plus a friendly bond market - that combination would potentially turn macro into a tailwind for Lennar.  

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