Exposures to Oil: What the Data Says
From a market lens — the transmission mechanism is clear: energy. And the data tells us more sectors lose than win from an oil shock.
In the chart below Quant Insight’s Risk Model maps the sensitivity of every S&P 500 industry group to a 1 daily standard deviation move higher in WTI. The picture is stark.
Winners are narrow. Oil & Gas Services, E&P, Pipelines, Agriculture, Alt Energy. That’s it. Losers are broad. Airlines, Leisure, Home Builders, Auto Parts, Software, Private Equity, Banks — the red bars dominate. Consumer cyclicals and rate-sensitive industrials take the biggest hit.
Higher oil acts as a tax on discretionary spending and compresses margins across transport, lodging, and distribution. Clients drill down to individual stock exposures and see where oil’s marginal contribution to risk is rising.
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