Qi’s Macro Weather Gauge: the Easy Part of the Rally is Over
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A month ago, the Qi Risk Indicator for SPY hit +3.2σ — peak macro fear territory driven by credit widening during the Iran crisis. We flagged it as a potential buying zone.
Today it’s back at +0.82σ. The macro stress has normalised. And with it, the tactical opportunity.
The data across 9 prior fear episodes since 2017 is clear:
From peak fear to normalisation (~1.0σ), SPY has averaged +6.3% in roughly 4 weeks. That’s the easy money — the reflexive bounce as macro factor stress dissipates.
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