"Sell America". Sector by Sector
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A weaker US Dollar, a steeper 5s30s yield curve, and rising rate volatility.
Three symptoms of the same disease, the "sell America" trade.
Which S&P 500 sectors are actually exposed?
Quant Insight's Macro Factor Equity Risk Model (MFERM) scored all 11 GICS sectors on US Dollar, 5s30s curve and rate vol exposure simultaneously.
Utilities (XLU) and Financials (XLF) screen most exposed.
Energy (XLE) is the cleanest hedge.
Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) are more exposed than the "obvious" inflation trade view suggests.
The same three-factor screen run at end-2024 predicted Q1 2025 with a −0.70 rank correlation. Nine of eleven sectors were called correctly, ahead of time. The one miss: Tech (XLK), hit by the DeepSeek stock-specific shock — not macro. Same MFERM score is running live today. Know what's exposed before the tantrum hits.
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