1. FX Disconnect – AUDCHF at Extremes
2. Taiwan Crowded Trade
3. Oil Shock Trade Overextended
Heading 1
Heading 2
Heading 3
Heading 4
Heading 5
Heading 6
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Block quote
Ordered list
- Item 1
- Item 2
- Item 3
Unordered list
- Item A
- Item B
- Item C
Bold text
Emphasis
Superscript
Subscript
1.FX Disconnect – AUDCHF at Extremes
The cross at a rare ~3σ rich level
Equities were priced for another Venezuela, not a 4–5 week protracted conflict. Hence risk-off.
The bond market is pricing Iran as a stagflation shock rather than recession or flight-to-quality. Real yields are higher.
FX is less coherent. A firmer Dollar fits, especially given crowded shorts, but on Qi the broad Dollar ETF (UUP) is now ~1.5σ rich. With only 60% model confidence, positioning and momentum may dominate near term.
More striking: AUDCHF has pushed to ~3σ rich. That’s only the second time in our database (back to 2009).
FX appears to be siding with bonds: commodity shock first & foremost. But Qi model value has slipped below 0.53 as higher VIX and wider credit spreads weigh. The Aussie has ignored deteriorating risk appetite so far. If equities drag the narrative back to outright risk aversion, AUDCHF looks exposed up here.
Continue reading our analysis on the other headlines by downloading the PDF below
Related Articles
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. AI Premium Fades, Macro Discount Still Missing
2. Fading Warsh – 2y Notes
3. Fading Warsh – EURUSD
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. Hang Seng Near Record Cheap vs Macro
2. Falling Inflation, No Value Bid
3. Renaissance IPO ETF - Speculative Risk Is Running Hot
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. EFA over SPY: Catch-Up Potential
2. DBA - Cheap Rate Vol Insurance
3. Gold Miners: The Discount Runs Ahead
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. S&P 500 - Same Data, New Regime
2. Rotation Risk: QQQ Looks Stretched vs IWM
3. Re-visiting FX carry