Insights

Qi MacroVantage - 30th January 2025

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1. Climbing the wall of worry but SPY FVG narrowing into earnings season
2. Within commodity plays, XLB better bet than XLE
3. Beware US yield curve flattening

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1. AII Sentiment & SPY Qi FVG hit 1yr lows, allowing for risk respite
2. EURCAD - who benefits in any Trump relief rally?
3. Shift in factor leadership for the Euro

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Qi Macro Spotlight: Sector sensitivities ahead of inauguration

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1. The bull vs. bear case for risk rests on whether FCIs bite
2. Value/Growth and Bond Yields
3. Small Caps – Similarly, the worrying indifference to credit spreads
4. HY credit - canary in the coalmine
5. Time to re-visit India
6. RBA rate cut? Short AUD is not the right trade

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Qi Macro Spotlight: 2025 Macro Risk Observations

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1. Current Volatility & looking out into 2025
2. Re-pricing the Fed
3. US Materials – an efficient China long
4. Bullish bonds? Gilts offer best value

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‍1. The FX market is risk averse
2. The rates market is complacent
3. Bond vol complacency raising the ante for long duration equities
4. Momentum - buy the dip?
5. Chinese pivot? Equities, maybe. Bonds, not yet
6. Oil Stocks vs. Consumer discretionary in the US

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1. Red flag on Yen strength
2. R2K sensitivity to HY credit spreads has dropped to zero – the easy money is over
3. Long duration vs. short duration vulnerable, underplaying the risks of higherinflation vol
4. Semiconductors remain the optimal AI play?
5. FTSE MIB vs DAX: A Europe play?

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