As of Friday close:

- S&P 500 has done afull round-trip. Back to flat YTD.
- Best & Worst major equity market in May? US & China, respectively
- S&P 500 12m fwd PE= 21.6x. 94th percentile over last 20yrs.
- MOVE index near 2.5yr lows = bond vol crushed
- 10yr UST yield at 4.4%= bang on its 100d trend.

Looking ahead, we are back to trading range - the disconnect between Quant Insight's macro share of risk & S&P 500 multiples is still evident:

The updated chart below shows the inverse relationship between macro risk & valuation multiples.

In short:
Macro fear collapsed since April → S&P 500 PE re-rated from 18.1x to 21.6x (+19%)
Even if the PE holds steady for the next 1mth, 3m change trends higher (see orange line)… pushing us back to top of range.

So What?
Markets have already priced the taco trade…

And now there’s chilli in the salsa — 50% tariffs on steel/aluminium imports + more China sabre rattling

Nvidia is below post-earnings highs.

And we’ve got a big macro week ahead: ISM, JOLTS, NFP…

All making for choppier market seas ahead.

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