1. EU Oil Rich into Ukraine Summit
2. Room for US Mid-Cap Outperformance?
3. USDBRL - be patient
1. K-Shaped Trade Have Run a Long Way
2. EURUSD - Bears Beware the Old Playbook
3. Credit's AI Hangover - US Too Wide to Europe
1. EU Oil Rich into Ukraine Summit
Hopes have lifted for a Ukraine ceasefire given the impending meeting between Trump and Putin. Crude oil (both WTI & Brent) has fallen almost 10% into August on this prospect.
However, the European Oil & Gas heavyweights still screen rich relative to oil exposed companies on Qi’s valuation model, currently at +1.22 sigma – the upper end of its longterm FVG range. When the FVG elastic is stretched it warrants attention given its high correlation to spot prices.
Relative to otherEuropean sectors, SXEP (Energy) vs. SX8P (Technology) is the stand-out RV sector pair in term of extended Qi Fair Value Gap – at a multi-year highs of+2.7 sigma.
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