1. EU Oil Rich into Ukraine Summit
2. Room for US Mid-Cap Outperformance?
3. USDBRL - be patient
1. 10y UST - Being Early the Same as Being Wrong
2. Where Asia’s Value Hides
3. SOXX benefits from end of QT but is this priced?
1. EU Oil Rich into Ukraine Summit
Hopes have lifted for a Ukraine ceasefire given the impending meeting between Trump and Putin. Crude oil (both WTI & Brent) has fallen almost 10% into August on this prospect.
However, the European Oil & Gas heavyweights still screen rich relative to oil exposed companies on Qi’s valuation model, currently at +1.22 sigma – the upper end of its longterm FVG range. When the FVG elastic is stretched it warrants attention given its high correlation to spot prices.
Relative to otherEuropean sectors, SXEP (Energy) vs. SX8P (Technology) is the stand-out RV sector pair in term of extended Qi Fair Value Gap – at a multi-year highs of+2.7 sigma.
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