1. US equities resemble Wile E. Coyote
2. Credit is cracking, credit-sensitive equities aren’t
3. Crude Oil’s Currency Playbook
Heading 1
Heading 2
Heading 3
Heading 4
Heading 5
Heading 6
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Block quote
Ordered list
- Item 1
- Item 2
- Item 3
Unordered list
- Item A
- Item B
- Item C
Bold text
Emphasis
Superscript
Subscript
US equities resemble Wile E. Coyote
Both the S&P500 and NASDAQ are around 1 sigma rich.Since the conflict in Iran began, Qi’s macro-warranted model value has fallen5.5% for the former, nearly 7% for the latter.
The big driver pushing Qi model value lower is the movewider in credit spreads & the rise in interest rate volatility. Equitiesare lagging this tightening of financial conditions.
This bearish divergence shifts the risk-reward in US equities to the downside. Other forces (chart support?) may help explain equities relative resilience. But note macro explains 90% and 87% of the S&P500 and the NASDAQ respectively.
Continue reading our analysis on the other headlines by downloading the PDF below
Related Articles
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. Mag7: Impatience Priced In?
2. EURNOK rally losing macro support
3. US Housing rally runs ahead of macro
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. AI Premium Fades, Macro Discount Still Missing
2. Fading Warsh – 2y Notes
3. Fading Warsh – EURUSD
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. Hang Seng Near Record Cheap vs Macro
2. Falling Inflation, No Value Bid
3. Renaissance IPO ETF - Speculative Risk Is Running Hot
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. EFA over SPY: Catch-Up Potential
2. DBA - Cheap Rate Vol Insurance
3. Gold Miners: The Discount Runs Ahead