1. USTs. Flows > Macro
2. EM ex-China – Amber sign ?
3. NZDJPY downside for the “buy Japan” trade
Heading 1
Heading 2
Heading 3
Heading 4
Heading 5
Heading 6
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Block quote
Ordered list
- Item 1
- Item 2
- Item 3
Unordered list
- Item A
- Item B
- Item C
Bold text
Emphasis
Superscript
Subscript
1.USTs. Flows > Macro
Bonds are rallying on flows, not fundamentals.
Thus far, AI has been treated as a relative value rotation story. Not a systemic threat. That’s why the re-pricing in the bond market is so significant.
Stronger US data and Takaichi’s super majority in Japan should have pushed yields higher. Instead, govvies have rallied re-discovering their safe haven status in an AI-driven deflationary world.
In contrast, Qi’s model value for 10y USTs – which includes tracking GDP growth and inflation expectations - points to rising yields. At the same time, Qi model confidence has fallen sharply.
Continue reading our analysis on the other headlines by downloading the PDF below
Related Articles
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. S&P 500 - Same Data, New Regime
2. Rotation Risk: QQQ Looks Stretched vs IWM
3. Re-visiting FX carry
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. Equity bears need a Plan B?
2. Poor risk-reward in credit
3. Bonds vs Commodities: more to give
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. Cyclicals are at new highs. Macro isn’t there yet.
2. Europe HY Looks the Vulnerable Trade
3. QQEW: The One Still in Regime
Identify price dislocations, opportunities, regimes and sensitivities
1. KWEB looking interesting again, especially vs. FDN
2. USDJPY: Intervention Can Slow It. Not Stop It.
3. TU: Cheap Enough to Matter Again