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Posted on

February 19, 2026

Written by

Huw Roberts

1.USTs. Flows > Macro

Bonds are rallying on flows, not fundamentals.

Thus far, AI has been treated as a relative value rotation story. Not a systemic threat. That’s why the re-pricing in the bond market is so significant.

Stronger US data and Takaichi’s super majority in Japan should have pushed yields higher. Instead, govvies have rallied re-discovering their safe haven status in an AI-driven deflationary world.

In contrast, Qi’s model value for 10y USTs – which includes tracking GDP growth and inflation expectations - points to rising yields. At the same time, Qi model confidence has fallen sharply.

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