Politics Trumps Macro In The US Bond Market
1. The silent shift that could hurt equities
2. KWEB vs. QQQ - time for a pause?
3. AUDNZD - bullish fundamentals but too far, too fast
A regime change is underway in US Treasuries.
For months, macro fundamentals - led by inflation expectations - explained UST price action well.
The story?
Nominal yields had fallen more than the disinflationary impulse justified. Now that macro grip is slipping Quant Insight model confidence is already below - or flirting with - our 65% regime threshold. The shift coincides with political noise - Powell’s job security, BLS changes, and questions over US data integrity.
TL;DR: Yields are low versus model value, so risk-reward for bond bulls is poor.
Politics now steer UST price action more than macro.
See the charts below
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