A regime change is underway in US Treasuries.

For months, macro fundamentals - led by inflation expectations - explained UST price action well.

The story?
Nominal yields had fallen more than the disinflationary impulse justified. Now that macro grip is slipping Quant Insight model confidence is already below - or flirting with - our 65% regime threshold. The shift coincides with political noise - Powell’s job security, BLS changes, and questions over US data integrity.

TL;DR: Yields are low versus model value, so risk-reward for bond bulls is poor.

Politics now steer UST price action more than macro.

See the charts below