1. S&P500’s Quiet But Dangerous Addiction

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Qi’s SPY model shows sensitivity to US rate vol is at 10 year lows. In simple terms, the fall in the MOVE index has been a major tailwind for equities.

The problem is asymmetry. When dependence on low rate vol gets this extreme, any spike matters more.

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There are plenty of ways that calm gets tested — SCOTUS on Trump tariffs, commodity-led inflation pressure, deficit anxiety, Fed succession risk.

2025 worked because bonds stayed quiet after April’s shock. Equities are now priced for that to continue. That’s a potential vulnerability.

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