Long-End Yields Reprice Equity Risk, Unevenly
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The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed from ~5.0% in early July to 5.34% , its highest since 2007.
This isn't primarily a Fed story. Pressure sits at the long end: wide fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply, rising term premium, inflation and oil risk, and AI-related capex increasingly financed in the bond market. US federal interest costs now exceed the defence budget.
That looks like a regime shift, not noise.
Using Quant Insight's MFERM macro factor model, we screened S&P 500 sensitivity to a steeper 5s30s curve since 1 July. 59% of market cap is hurt by long-end-led steepening.
Hit hardest:
Semiconductors, Autos, Insurance, Tech Hardware, Banks
Relative winners:
Telecom, Energy, Software. Semis and Software sit in the same Tech bucket, yet moved in opposite directions.
The IGV/SOXX ratio has tracked the 30yr yield closely. Sector labels hide macro risk.
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