Heading 1

This week's MacroVantage finds bullish divergences in US equities, value emerging in XLY, and a clean way to fade the Yen.

Bullish Divergence Patterns in US Equities
Both SPX futures and the equal-weight Nasdaq (QQEW) screen around 1σ cheap to Qi fair value.
History favours the setup: -1σ FVGs have delivered a 71% hit rate on both, with average returns of +3.4% and +4.0%.
Rising inflation expectations are doing the heavy lifting, though this week's PPI/CPI is the risk.

XLY: Bad News Is Getting Priced In
The year's worst US sector now sits -0.8σ (-2.53%) below Qi fair value, near the bottom of its range.
Higher real yields and firmer energy are the macro headwinds; September could be the catalyst if either eases.
The caveat is Tesla, ~17% of the ETF, so XLY needs stabilisation too. One to watch, not chase.

Looking to Fade the Yen? AUDJPY
‍EURJPY now sits 4σ cheap to macro - a record FVG - but low model confidence reflects how intervention, repatriation flows are bigger drivers right now.
AUDJPY sits 1.1σ (3.3%) cheap with high, stable 79% model confidence.Such extended gaps are rare, only 19 since 2009, with a 74% hit rate.
Suggests this offers better risk-reward for Yen bears.

Read the full edition for charts and Qi model detail.

‍