1. Gold Miners: Macro Re-engagesValue
2. Rotation: Too Far, Too Fast?European
3. Credit: Value Building?
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This week's MacroVantage finds Macro Re-engaging with Gold Miners, a stretched Value Rotation, and Value Building in European Credit.
Gold Miners: Macro Re-engages
GDX has ripped higher, with Qi model confidence back up at 84%.
The dominant lever is GDX's negative exposure to US real rates, and Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole turn has pushed real rates back up.
The premium has already halved from a +1.94σ peak to +0.94σ (10.03%), leaving risk-reward skewed to further unwind.
Value Rotation: Too Far, Too Fast?
RPV has outperformed RPG by almost 20% quarter to date, but the pair now screens 1.5σ (9.56%) above Qi fair value.
Value's Achilles' heel is higher inflation; if expectations keep rising, the macro backdrop could turn against the trade.
Current Value leadership looks vulnerable to mean reversion.
European Credit: Value Building?
IBCX screens 1.6σ (0.88%) cheap on Qi, a rarely-seen Fair Value Gap.
One health warning: Qi fair value has fallen to 123.78, close to July's local low.
A break lower would favour a more prudent watch-and-wait stance.
Read the full edition for charts and Qi model detail.
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