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Three dislocations stand out in this week’s MacroVantage, each a gap between where price sits and where Qi’s macro models place fair value.

South Korea leads. From March to September, macro explanatory power for the KOSPI dropped below the 65% threshold as fundamentals lagged the rally. But macro relevance has returned, now at 85% and near five-year highs, making the KOSPI a macro-driven market again, with inflation expectations a top positive driver, so this week’s US CPI print is fuel for the index.

Qi model value fell sharply between July and September but has rebounded off its October lows, even as the index kept selling off. That divergence leaves the KOSPI 1.4σ (33.39%) below our model value, a dislocation that could offer a chance to start rebuilding exposure to Korean equities.

Oil services is the second. Crude’s war premium is unwinding at speed, and OIH has fallen from around 403 in late October to below 350 as hopes for a US-Iran deal build. But macro has not followed: Qi model value has edged up to 408.28, leaving spot at 359.02, or -2.06σ (-13.72%) cheap, with confidence high at 81%. Since OIH’s fair value is positively linked to the industrial metals backdrop, not just crude, the combination of cheap valuation, rising model value and high confidence is a confirmed bullish signal.

AUDUSD rounds out the note. An AI unwind should be USD-negative and an RBA hike AUD-positive, yet spot has fallen to the March lows. Qi disagrees, with AUDUSD 1.9σ (-2.71%) cheap to fair value of 0.7080, a rare gap seen in regime only twice since 2009, both of which worked. Critically, its risk-aversion sensitivity has flipped positive, offering very rare, efficient entry levels for AI bears.

Read the full edition for charts and Qi model detail.

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