Which regime are we in, and what is priced?
One engine, four questions, three numbers.
The Qi Valuation Model prices every asset against live macro conditions. Signal Generation turns that price into a decision — momentum, dislocation, and the most efficient trade. Everything below is one of those two halves.
Valuation model · Model confidence
Ask whether macro matters, before asking anything else.
Every read starts with one question: is this asset actually being driven by macro right now, or is something else in the driver's seat? R² measures it directly.
High R² means macro conditions explain the bulk of price action. Low R² means idiosyncratic or event risk — earnings, M&A, geopolitics — has taken over.
Regime shifts run both ways. An asset can sit out of regime for months, then hand control back to macro within weeks.
Valuation model · Model value
A daily read on whether macro is a headwind or a tailwind.
Model value is not a price target and it is not a forecast. It is what current macro conditions alone warrant for the asset, recalculated every day.
Read it on its own, as momentum, before you ever compare it to price. It routinely turns well before spot does.
Model value can trend for months while price does something else entirely — and that relationship is where the fair value gap comes from.
Signal generation · Fair value gap
Find where price and macro have parted ways.
Spot minus model value, expressed in standard deviations, so one threshold works across a Taiwan ETF and a Bund future alike — and shown in price or yield terms too, so the gap reads as a real, tradable level.
±1σ is the standard screening threshold; ±1.5σ marks the extremes.
A wide gap does not say which side is right. It says a gap exists.
Signal generation · Trade selection
Turn a macro view into the right trade, not just a trade.
Run the sensitivity profile in reverse. Start with a macro view, then screen the universe for whichever instrument carries the highest, cleanest sensitivity to that theme.
One factor at a time, across equities, rates, FX and commodities — so the expression of a view is the most efficient one available, not merely an available one.
Behind every model value sits that sensitivity profile, and it is not fixed: factor leadership rotates even while macro stays firmly in control.
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