1. Software vs. Semis: Has the Rotation Gone Too Far?
2. Brazil: Political Risk, Historic Opportunity
3. EURJPY: When Higher Yields Become a Warning
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Software vs. Semis: Has the Rotation Gone Too Far?
- IGV has outperformed SOXX by ~70% since the June lows.
- Macro momentum has stalled. Software’s run has not.
- The pair trades 1.1σ rich to Qi fair value, with an 81% historical hit rate for mean reversion.
Brazil: Political Risk, Historic Opportunity
- Lula’s win triggered the Bovespa’s biggest one-day fall on record.
- Politics now dominates, with model confidence at 51%.
- But macro has improved and EWZ trades 2σ cheap, an historically rare entry level.
EURJPY: When Higher Yields Become a Warning
- EURJPY’s sensitivity to rate differentials is the most negative since 2011.
- Higher yields on fiscal risk are a warning, not a reward.
- A -1.4σ FVG suggests valuation is cheap but the signal needs a catalyst; calm bond markets (specifically OAT-Bund spreads) are key.
Download the pdf for the full detail and charts
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