1. Homebuilders Oversold
2. Bond Bears Pick Your Curve
3. Brazil Outruns Its Macro
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This week's MacroVantage finds spot running ahead of the macro in three very different places.
Homebuilders
XHB sits 0.72σ cheap to Qi fair value, a 4.25% gap.
Spot usually closes gaps like this, not the model.
Tonight's Fed is the catalyst to watch.
Bond Bears
EUR 10s30s is 1.1σ too flat, one of the cheapest FVGs amongst Qi's G7 yield curve models.
Rate vol has stopped rising but the curve keeps flattening.
A potentially efficient entry level for renewed long end vulnerability.
Brazil
Ibovespa is up 11% on the month while Qi fair value has fallen 3%.
Spot sits +1.40σ above model value, near the top of its 1y range.
68% model confidence, but that R-Squared is sliding.
Download the full edition for charts and Qi model detail.
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