1. Time for a Dollar pause
2. Short squeeze stretched?
3. Risk-reward shifts back to a steeper US yield curve
1. 10y UST - Being Early the Same as Being Wrong
2. Where Asia’s Value Hides
3. SOXX benefits from end of QT but is this priced?
1. Time for Dollar pause
Qi's snapshot of global FX shows the Dollar as rich versus a wide range of both DM & EM currencies.
But there are some interesting nuances:
· the Dollar is consistently rich versus its G7 peers with USDJPY the standout. Interesting in the context of a fractured Parliament which could curb Takaichi’s easy- policy plans, challenging the weak-Yen consensus.
· $-Asia is the main EM mover; $-LatAm typically sits near fair value.
· what commodity super cycle? Given the bull narrative around real resources, why aren't AUD, Kiwi, CAD doing better?
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