1. Time for a Dollar pause
2. Short squeeze stretched?
3. Risk-reward shifts back to a steeper US yield curve
1. Rate sensitive vs. bond proxy stocks – too far, too fast?
2. EURGBP – upside risks
3. EM bonds – trend break or pause that refreshes?
1. Time for Dollar pause
Qi's snapshot of global FX shows the Dollar as rich versus a wide range of both DM & EM currencies.
But there are some interesting nuances:
· the Dollar is consistently rich versus its G7 peers with USDJPY the standout. Interesting in the context of a fractured Parliament which could curb Takaichi’s easy- policy plans, challenging the weak-Yen consensus.
· $-Asia is the main EM mover; $-LatAm typically sits near fair value.
· what commodity super cycle? Given the bull narrative around real resources, why aren't AUD, Kiwi, CAD doing better?
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