1. Rich Insurance
2. A Cheap Fed Hedge
3. Copper Over Gold
Heading 1
Heading 2
Heading 3
Heading 4
Heading 5
Heading 6
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Block quote
Ordered list
- Item 1
- Item 2
- Item 3
Unordered list
- Item A
- Item B
- Item C
Bold text
Emphasis
Superscript
Subscript
This week's MacroVantage flags three places where price and macro have drifted apart.
1. "Rich insurance."
Invesco's Pricing Power ETF (POWA) is the kind of stable, high-quality basket investors hold as a hedge in a sticky-inflation world.
But it has rallied hard and now trades almost 2σ (4.6%) rich to macro fair value.
With macro momentum flat-lining, that gap looks set to close by the market catching down.
2. A cheap hedge against a pre-emptive Fed.
Macro still points to higher US Treasury yields, but 2y yields screen around 20bp too low while 30y yields have run too far. With the 2s10s and 5s30s curves ~1σ too steep, the contrarian move may be to shift bearish focus from 30s to 2s.
3. Copper over gold.
Qi's copper/gold relative-value model is back in macro regime for the first time in over a year. August's dollar reversal opened a -1.1σ (10.8%) gap. Not a bearish gold call - simply that copper offers the better entry here.
Click the download button to get the full PDF
Related Articles
.jpg)
1. Healthcare: Defensive Premium Overdone?
2. Utilities: Bond Sell-Off Casualty
3. Communications: The Leader Looks Stretched
.jpg)
1. Homebuilders Oversold
2. Bond Bears Pick Your Curve
3. Brazil Outruns Its Macro
1. Bullish Divergence Patterns in US Equities
2. XKL Bad News Is Getting Priced In
3. Looking to Fade the Yen? AUDJPY
1. Gold Miners: Macro Re-engagesValue
2. Rotation: Too Far, Too Fast?European
3. Credit: Value Building?