1. US Utilities Mean-Reversion
2. USDCAD The One Dollar Long
3. Stocks Over Bonds
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This week's MacroVantage finds mean-reversion setups across US utilities, the Dollar and the stocks-vs-bonds allocation call.
US Utilities – mean reversion setup in view
XLU sits 1.3σ (4.5%) cheap to macro fair value, near the low end of its multi-year range.
Since 2009, similar long signals have delivered a 75% win rate, with a high 64% FVG-spot correlation.
Stabilising yields, defensive appeal and AI-driven power demand all argue the gap could start to close.
USDCAD – the one Dollar long worth exploring?
Dollar debasement fears leave USD bulls few and far between, but USDCAD may be the G7 exception on Canadian tariff risk.
Qi has it 1σ (1.2%) cheap to macro fair value.
Confidence is only 43%, but back-tests show a 73% hit rate on bullish signals at -1σ gaps.
Macro still says stocks over bonds
A bullish divergence is opening on Qi's SPY vs. GOVT model, leaving SPY 0.8σ (3.9%) cheap.
With 69% model confidence, macro matters, and rising inflation expectations keep pushing model value higher.
Download the full edition for charts and Qi model detail.
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