Insights

1. Time to fade long duration stocks
2. Low Vol is not a good hiding place
3. Inflation hawks in the ascendancy

‍

Qi Macro Spotlight: Real Rates Remain a Key Risk for 'The Rest'

‍

Qi Macro Spotlight -Tail Risks

‍

‍

1. A message from bonds & commodities
2. European Banks - too far, too fast
3. Value the Comeback Kid but tariff risks temper the enthusiasm

‍

Qi Macro Spotlight: European Banks

‍

Qi Macro Spotlight: US Exceptionalism at Risk

‍

Qi MacroVantage - 30th January 2025

‍

1. Climbing the wall of worry but SPY FVG narrowing into earnings season
2. Within commodity plays, XLB better bet than XLE
3. Beware US yield curve flattening

‍

1. AII Sentiment & SPY Qi FVG hit 1yr lows, allowing for risk respite
2. EURCAD - who benefits in any Trump relief rally?
3. Shift in factor leadership for the Euro

‍

Qi Macro Spotlight: Sector sensitivities ahead of inauguration

‍

1. The bull vs. bear case for risk rests on whether FCIs bite
2. Value/Growth and Bond Yields
3. Small Caps – Similarly, the worrying indifference to credit spreads
4. HY credit - canary in the coalmine
5. Time to re-visit India
6. RBA rate cut? Short AUD is not the right trade

‍

Qi Macro Spotlight: 2025 Macro Risk Observations

‍